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Wednesday, 4 November 2020

Risk Assessment of Covid 19 Pandemic

Risk Assessment of Covid 19 Pandemic

Introduction


2020 has been a year marred by Covid 19 Pandemic. The disease which is believed to have originated in the Wuhan province of China took the global economy in a deep crisis. The social and economic structure of our society was in disarray. USA has been one of the worst affected Nations in the world. Covid 19 is creating havoc around the world with almost 47 million cases and around 1.2 million deaths in 2020. USA has been the most affected by the pandemic and it has the highest number of death and the infected cases compared to other world nations. Scientists are working around the clock for developing vaccine  against the virus. Vaccine is expected to arrive in the market by the next year 2021.  The Global spread of the virus has disintegrated health systems and disrupted the social and economic development. Many countries have imposed lockdown strategies and isolation methods to control the spread of disease. This measure has helped them to contain the disease to a great extent. The world is slowly recovering from the economic crisis pandemic has caused. But it may take time for the full recovery of our economy and the world is waiting for the arrival of an effective vaccine against covid-19. The covid-19 can be fatal, particularly for the aged persons and others who are having health issues like diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, lung disease etc. (Alexandrovich et.al, 2020). The virus spreads at a rapid rate and grows exponentially. There are also cases where the patients don't have any visible symptoms. So that makes it more difficult to detect in such conditions and the carriers will be spreading the disease without the knowledge of being affected.


Risk Analysis


We need a renewed focus on the public health systems to contain the  pandemic and slow down its transmission. It can affect all sections of the society and it have adverse effects on the economy as well as the social system . We can have a look at the different sources of the transmission of the virus. Social distancing is an essential strategy for preventing the spread of disease. Lockdown has been enforced on by the government systems to prevent the crowding of people and enforce the social distancing. It was an effective method to contain the spread of virus, but unfortunately we can't continue the restrictions for very long periods of time since it will affect our economy adversely. So we can identify certain issues which has increased the risk of transmission virus. Frontline health workers always have a greater risk of getting infected  since they come in contact with the affected people more often. They need to follow strict personal hygiene and use safeguard strategies to keep themselves safe and also to arrest the spread of disease to others. Tourism and immigration  have been some of the reasons for the spread of disease. People travelling to or from other countries can bring the disease along with them into our nation. Also there is an equal chance of bringing the disease when citizens travel two other countries and return (Desmet et.al., 2020). Government imposes ban on travel for some period of time to prevent the disease. Some pubic common use areas such as restaurants, toilet public transport system can be a source of disease spread. When we use such public areas there is a need of maintaining high hygiene and personal social distancing. The face needs to be covered with a mask and make yourself clean with sanitizer frequently. Try to avoid the crowded areas and follow the rules and restrictions imposed by the government. The government can put monitoring and supervision techniques to make sure that the citizens are following directions and maintaining procedures. Limit social gatherings in homes and other common places to maintain the social distancing rule. Another area of consideration is for workers living together and travelling together to work together. If any of the workers gets the disease then there is a high chance of the disease getting spread among the whole group of workers (Wilder et.al., 2020).


We have to make subtle changes in our lifestyle to help stop the spread of the pandemic. Social gatherings and other crowded areas are sources of spreading for the disease. The government of different countries imposed restrictions on such gatherings and restricted the number of persons who could attend functions and funerals. The borders of the countries were closed for some time to prevent entry and exit of people . Many IT companies and educational institutions have shifted to online mode. The workers and faculty can work from their homes and thus avoid the need to travel and mingling with people. This reduces the risk of getting the disease read extend.


However, very few strategies and associated risk assessments will take into account the occurrence of an epidemic or similar structural disorders. Even if a company has an infection on its risk radar; Even the most experienced boards and executives in these situations may have limited experience and system recognition so concerns may be limited to their staff and health care costs. As a result, strategies that are “hot from the press” or at various stages of development are inappropriate due to the 2019 corona virus epidemic (COVID-19) and the monumental effects of this global event. In many cases, while employee health is still important, immediate attention should be paid to travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions, and celebrity concerns about how the business is reacting. On infection. These awkward situations that have already occurred are exacerbated by the impending global recession and the emergence of ever changing challenges - it is difficult to say whether the recession and the effects of COVID-19 will begin to end (Haq, M. N., 2020).


What we see is that COVID-19 infection is proving to be a truly interrelated risk, manifesting itself very quickly due to its systemic nature. Our concern for medical services has led to many of our current mitigation efforts focusing on ‘curving the curve’ to further address risk. While giving such a response can reduce the severity of the effects, one can expect these effects to be long lasting and long lasting. In general, strategies produce a version of the future, often without understanding how that version works. However, there are many scenarios where some business conditions may change temporarily after COVID-19, while we can be confident that others will be more stable.


A firm can present a strong argument for using a method that uses an emotional lens for the situation; Not only does it identify the traditional characteristics of risk (i.e. probability and significance), but there are also interrelationships and velocity measurements that are increasingly important for such a systemic risk. By realizing that risks operate as an interconnected network, companies can identify the most influential risks and best goals and use risk reduction techniques to positively impact the key challenges and opportunities they face. They face a Govt-19 world. By deliberately introducing the risk dimension for infection, the analysis of the application of such a method illustrates the importance of considering the clusters of related risks and explores how the risk of infection may alter the potential risk associated with infection. The analysis also reveals that compared to the impact of individual risks captured with traditional approaches, any domino risk has greater severity and speed of danger when viewed in clusters (Courtemanche et.al., 2020).


Risk Evaluation


Effect of covid-19 runs very deep and it may take time for the economy to recover from such losses. Demand and supply shock has been a feature of the economic crisis brought about by this pandemic. The health systems were found inadequate to contain the pandemic and temporary hospitals were set up to accommodate the patients. Quarantine, lockdown unemployment and business closures, reduced the demand for goods and services, that further degraded the economic situation . Job losses has been a regular feature. The adverse affects have been greater for women and the non-white workers. The data collected shows a decline of 8.7 % in the case of consumer goods sales from February to March 2020. It was the largest decline in the recent years since the collection of data has begun. The good news is that the consumer goods economy is slowly recovering from the crisis and this was shown in consumer goods sales, when it increased by 12.7 % from April to May. Another area of concern is the industrial production. The output from industrial production decreased to unknown levels . Machine tools, plastic machinery, steel production are the highly affected industries (Haq, M. N., 2020). The small business revenue has decreased by almost 20 percentage since January 2020.


The covid-19 has affected the unorganized sector to a great extent. It has left thousands jobless and is rapidly increasing the unemployment. The education sector has been in complete lockdown following the attack of covid-19. The students are continuing their education through online means. The effectiveness of such online education does not match to the direct classroom sessions. It can also negatively affect the academic progress and mental development of the young generation. Tourism and hospitality sector is also facing the loss of revenue due to the current scenario. The countries have closed their borders and put restrictions on travel. Apart from the economic losses, we can have a look at the social burden which was imposed by the  covid-19. Social distancing and quarantine measures have kept friends and relatives apart without any social engagements. The continuous seclusion process can have a heavy toll on the mental health of people. The anxiety about the disease is also increasing the negative effects on the mental health of people. Now, since the IT companies and certain other firms changed their work pattern, the employees are made to work from home for long periods of time through computers and tablets (Desmet et.al., 2020). This is causing musculoskeletal disorders in certain persons because of using display screen equipments for long periods of time.


Spread of covid-19 has shown certain Geographic trends. It first appeared in densely populated areas and then shifted its presence to more rural areas. So it affects more, who have low access to hygiene and with lower social and economic conditions. It shows that some racial and ethnic minority groups have increased chance of getting affect. They were found to have low access to the health services and it was found that such groups make more often use of the   public transport systems. The government policies have also resulted in their low social and economic development.


Measures to overcome similar threats in future

 

The experience and investments made in emergency preparedness made in covid 19 scenario can be used to fight against such a similar crisis in the future. It will be easier to deploy the resources and make a timely response to the demanding situations in the future. Active surveillance, collaborating different sections and groups to work together and addressing the psychological needs can be done with greater efficiency using the experience. Early preparation is an important factor in dealing with such hazards. Systematic analysis of the data and assessing the situations deeply can be helpful in such situations. The flaws in our health system have been exposed by Covid 19 pandemic, and the government can take measures to rectify those drawbacks and strengthen the health infrastructure.

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